Ian brings increasing clouds, breezy weather Wednesday
It's time to bring in some of the Halloween decorations and lawn furniture because winds will become gusty Wednesday afternoon and get worse through the week.
It has been a beautiful fall day in Middle Georgia with mostly sunny skies and cool temps, but we will soon be seeing the influence of Hurricane Ian on our forecast.
This afternoon we started to see an influx of clouds associated with Ian, but tomorrow brings even more cloud cover.
As of the 8pm update, Ian is still a category 3 storm, but intensification is happening and we are anticipating 130 mph winds by midnight.
The latest forecast path from the National Hurricane Center pushes the impacts a little further east.
This easterly shift is good news for Middle Georgia and will keep the worst impacts outside of our area.
Tomorrow we are expecting Ian to make landfall south of the Tampa Bay area, bringing heavy flooding rains, damaging winds and deadly storm surge to the coast.
In Middle Georgia, we will see clouds continuing to stick around, a lot like today with highs in the mid 70s.
Winds will be picking up Wednesday afternoon as Ian gets closer.
Expect wind gusts up to 25 and 30 mph through the afternoon.
There are still some questions with regards to the speed of Ian, but most models suggest the storm pushes off the east coast before it recurves toward our area.
A few models would keep the center of circulation to our east, which would be a drier solution, however I still anticipate rain chances starting to increase Thursday evening.
Thursday will also be the day where I expect we see some increasingly gusty winds.
This windy weather won’t just be from Ian, but the interaction between the very low pressure in Ian and high pressure to our north.
This pressure gradient will draw strong winds from the high pressure to the low pressure and could result in gusts up to 50 mph.
It’s not guaranteed, but if you have decorations or furniture outside, it might be a good time to bring it inside.
Friday is likely going to be our highest impact day with Ian.
Most models suggest that we will see some heavy rain, especially our eastern counties.
Above is the model solution from the European model and the GFS (American) is pretty similar.
In regards to the wind threat, the greatest chance for damaging wind gusts will be mainly east of I-75, where the center of circulation will be closer.
Winds could gust over 50 mph on both Thursday and Friday.
Saturday will still be breezy, but the system will mostly have moved out.
Rain totals across Middle Georgia will vary, but some places could see totals over 5″.
These areas will likely be stuck under bands of rain for quite a while.
The good news is that our soils are relatively dry from the past week, so we are not expecting widespread flooding.
In regards to the chance for a spin-up tornado, most guidance suggests that we are going to be on the side of the storm with less of a threat.
This doesn’t mean our chance is zero, but it is pretty low.
As always we will need to stay up to date on changes in the forecast because a wobble left or right from the center can make a huge difference.
By Saturday the center of circulation will be moving out of our area, but rain chances will stick around through the weekend.
As Ian moves north, as a tropical depression, our winds will slowly ease up and rain chances will start to fall.
Next week is looking pretty quiet weather wise, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.