Although early in the year, we’re watching the tropics

UPDATE: I’ve updated the chance for tropical development from this system to 60 percent to match the National Hurricane Center’s forecast.

Original weather write-up:

MACON, Georgia (41NBC/WMGT) — It’s quiet in our area, but it’s active in the tropics very early this year. Don’t worry: that doesn’t mean we’re going to have an active season — as a matter of fact, the official forecast calls for a below average hurricane season. Still, when something is brewing we have to watch!

First, let’s talk briefly about our Middle Georgia weather: what a lovely week it’s been! Seasonable low 80s for highs, which we expect today, lots of sun, a few clouds, and low humidity. Low humidity is great because you don’t have a heat index, which is how warm it feels outside when you include the humidity. And we all know how hot and humid it gets during the summer here!

Temperatures will warm up this week, however. Upper 80s are forecasted for tomorrow afternoon with possible 90s in the 7-Day. Overnight lows approach 60 starting Friday overnight. So if you’ve liked these seasonably warm high temperatures and seasonably cool morning lows, milk today for all it’s worth.

The Tropics

Okay, off to the tropics. A cluster of showers and storms sits off the coast of Florida. Over the next few days — the stormcast image shows this very well — we expect a center of circulation to form more clearly.

That means the system will get better organized. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical system within the next 48 hours, and a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical system within the next five days. If it makes landfall as some of the models suggest, that would stunt its ability to grow and strengthen, so it only has so much time to get its act together.

Regardless, the strongest kind of system I see this becoming would be a tropical storm, which isn’t a big deal in terms of wind damage. Rain would be the biggest concern with this along the coast. As long as it maintains the track we’re forecasting, this will stay far to the east of us, allowing us to stay dry for the rest of the week.

Categories: Weather

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