MACON, Georgia (41NBC/WMGT) – A fast moving cold front will bring powerful thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, to Middle Georgia this afternoon.

Early Today

It’s muggy around Middle Georgia to get things rolling on this Thursday. We will see temperatures climb pretty quickly as we roll into the early parts of the afternoon. A few isolated showers are possible, but for the most part the region will just remain mostly cloudy. Some clearing is anticipated in the cloud cover during the lunchtime hours. This will allow for additional destabilization of the atmosphere around much of the Peach State today. Highs will be in the mid 70s for most of Middle Georgia this afternoon. Dew points, however, are expected to hang back in the low to mid 60s, indicating limited return flow since the last round of storms last week.

Despite this the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk for much of Georgia to a Level 3 “Enhanced” Risk. The northwestern part (metro area and surrounding counties) of Middle Georgia are included in this zone. The rest of the region largely falls in the Level 2 “Slight” Risk category. The primary threat will be straight line winds thanks to powerful downbursts, however isolated tornadoes are definitely on the table for this afternoon and evening. Most of them will be of the brief spin-up variety.

Midday – Isolated Storms

Our severe afternoon will likely begin with some isolated storms during the later lunchtime hours. This is typically when your supercell thunderstorm activity begins. For Middle Georgia the news in this area is pretty good: the limited return flow along with weak low-level wind shear (change in wind direction with height) should keep storm bases a bit higher off the ground as well as limit the overall rotation potential. A cell that spawns a tornado cannot be ruled out, however.

Hail will most certainly be possible with these storms, however, and outflow winds could push 60 mph. At the minimum a few of these are likely to be warned for for meeting severe thunderstorm criteria (58+ mph winds, 1 inch or greater diameter hail, or a tornado). This mode will likely persist through the middle of the day with the number of storms growing as the cold front approaches from the west.

Evening – The Cold Front Arrives

The cold front should begin to move into Middle Georgia around 5 pm this evening. A powerful QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System) will bring strong winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning as it moves through. Additionally, the thought for later today is that the line will likely not be straight, but rather a bit bendy as it moves through. This will enhance a straight-line wind threat in the areas of the line that bow out, and embedded rotation (favorable for spin-up tornado development) in the bends between them. Between the afternoon cells and the evening line, the SPC has predicted a 10% chance for a tornado in much of northern Georgia and a 5% for most of Middle Georgia. The wind threat is 30% for the northern third of the state and 15% for the rest of Middle Georgia.

The front will move through the area fast; rain activity should stop for all of Middle Georgia before midnight. Because this front is moving so fast, it is actually outrunning the clearing of the moisture in the area. As a result, some clouds will linger overnight even once the winds shift towards the northwest at 10-20 mph. Gusts could still push upwards of 35 mph in the immediate wake of the front. We could also see a few small showers early tomorrow as moisture wraps around the back end of the low pressure system. Temperatures in the morning will be in the low to mid 40s for most of the region, however wind chills will be in the mid to upper 30s.

Beyond

Cloudy skies will stick around for most of Friday as the moisture from the back end of the low pressure system wraps around the south end. A few small showers will be possible during the first half of the day as a result. We should see some clearing in the evening, and sunny skies will be back for our Saturday with highs in the lower 50s.

Follow Meteorologist Aaron Lowery on Facebook (Aaron Lowery 41NBC) and Twitter (@ALowWX) for weather updates throughout the day. Also, you can watch his forecasts Monday through Friday on 41NBC News at Daybreak (6-7 a.m.) and 41Today (11 a.m).