Severe storms possible Tuesday
Welcome to the first full week of April, where temperatures are all over the place and severe weather is back in the forecast.
The Storm Prediction Center has already put us in a Level 3 (of 5), enhanced threat for severe storms.
This includes (the hatched area above) the potential for strong tornadoes, tomorrow afternoon.
Now is a good time to make sure you have multiple ways to get your warnings and know your safe place.
Big picture: a warm front will be lifting north, as the associated low pressure center moves east from Texas.
This will bring in a big rush of Gulf moisture, that will help to destabilize the atmosphere.
This destabilization will act as fuel for any thunderstorms that move in, or are able to pop up ahead of the line.
In regards to timing, the earliest we will likely be seeing storms, is around 11 am.
A squall line will approach the area from northwest to southeast, but any isolated supercell storms ahead of the line could be severe.
Storms are likely through the early afternoon along a line from Sparta to Butler.
By late afternoon/early evening the storms will be moving through areas mainly east of I-75.
The main line doesn’t look like it will be moving too quickly through the area, so heavy rain is also expected.
Storms should be out of the area by 6 or 7 pm, but a few showers will be possible overnight (non severe).
Although this will mostly be a damaging wind threat, tornadoes (including strong tornadoes) will be possible across the area.
Storms could bring 1-2″ of rain over a short period of time, so some urban flooding will be possible as well.
If it wasn’t enough to have a severe threat on Tuesday, we will also have one Wednesday.
Most of the area sits in the Level 2 (low threat), for damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes and heavy rain.
The most important thing about Wednesday, is that it is highly conditional on what happens Tuesday.
In the model graphic above you can see a line of storms along the panhandle of Florida.
If the system sets up like this ahead of the cold front, it will cut our area off from the main instability source.
If we get cut off from that moisture, severe storms are much less likely.
Even with less instability, a few strong storms will be possible as a strong front approaches.
By Thursday afternoon the front will be through the area and skies will clear.
This frontal passage will be dropping our temperatures as we head into the weekend.
Many of us will be dropping to the 30s by Saturday morning.
