Weather Forecast for May 14th, 2014

After a mostly dry May, a large amount of rainfall is set to fall in our area.  A frontal system pushes through the southeast today and tomorrow.  By the late afternoon and evening hours today, we could see moisture arrive from the south, as well as some pop-up storms.  However, the bulk of the rain looks to come into the area during the overnight hours and at least a good chunk of tomorrow, possibly all day (the models are always changing).  Two things you need to know:

Severe Weather Threat — Not really there.  CAPE (convective available potential energy) is good enough for storms, but wind shear is minimal, and we’re not looking at much daytime heating tomorrow with temperatures being kept lower due to rain-cooled air and cloud cover.

Rainfall Amounts — This is where you should focus.  Rainfall amounts look to range between 1 – 2 inches for the next 24 – 36 hours, but some models are showing locally heavier rain in some places in Middle Georgia, possibly up to 3 – 4 inches.  I’m not forecasting the latter for now as the Euro and Global Forecast System Models are moreso in the 1 – 2 inches range, but I can see 3 – 4 inches being a possibility in some areas.  Due to that, the main concerns from this system will be possible flooding.

That said, the fortunate news is a cool dome of high pressure forms in the east, setting us up for a dry weekend and a dry start to the work week next week! Abundant sunshine, 70s for highs, chilly overnight temperatures, and dry weather dominate the majority of the extended forecast.