Trump administration promises affordability gains as economic data shows mixed outlook

The Trump administration is striking an optimistic tone on the economy as President Trump prepares to deliver a prime-time address to the nation.

(CNN)- The Trump administration is striking an optimistic tone on the economy as President Trump prepares to deliver a prime-time address to the nation tonight, focusing on accomplishments from 2025 and expectations for the year ahead.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said 2026 is shaping up to be strong, calling it “a bountiful year.” The White House says the president will reflect on economic progress while outlining goals tied to affordability and growth.

But economists and newly released data suggest a more complicated picture.

A new report shows retail sales were flat between September and October, signaling that consumer spending may be losing momentum. Consumer spending analyst Hitha Herzog says affordability pressures are uneven, noting that higher-income households are less sensitive to rising costs than lower- and middle-income earners.

Labor market data also raises concerns. A report released yesterday shows the unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high last month. Economist Natasha Sarin described current conditions as a “no hire, no fire” market, where companies are hesitant to add jobs but also reluctant to cut workers.

The data indicates the economy lost 105,000 jobs in October, followed by a gain of 64,000 jobs last month. Rutgers University economics professor Jennifer Hunt says job growth has essentially stalled over the past six months, citing immigration levels, government spending constraints, and tariffs as contributing factors.

Affordability concerns also extend to the price of goods. Economists are watching tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index update closely for insight into inflation trends. Statistics show CPI growth had been easing earlier this year, but Sarin argues that recent tariff policies reversed that progress, calling them among the most inflationary measures in decades.

Despite the mixed signals, some policymakers remain hopeful. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee says he remains optimistic about economic growth heading into 2026.

The president’s address tonight is expected to lean into that optimism, even as households across the country continue to feel pressure from prices, wages, and job uncertainty.